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West Brom vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

West Brom
West Brom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
2/23/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

West Brom40%
×Draw28%
Sheffield Utd32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.27
Sheffield Utd
1.09

West Brom creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 16 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.38
Sheffield Utd
1.34

allows per match

West Brom
0.84
Sheffield Utd
1.17

finishing

West Brom-0.06on par
Sheffield Utd-0.03on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
68%
West Brom or Sheffield Utd
72%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
60%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
18%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
72%
West Brom 2+ goals
36%
West Brom 3+ goals
14%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
66%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
30%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
56%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.38 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sheffield Utd attack 1.34 + West Brom defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Brom scores more
40%
level
28%
Sheffield Utd scores more
32%

West Brom at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: West Brom 0–1 Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat West Brom 1-0 in Championship on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.