Sheffield Utd 1–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

West Brom

A. Brooks 23'

K. Ahearne-Grant 45+1'

12/29/2024

Championship · Round 24Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Sheffield Utd44%

×Draw27%

West Brom29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

Sheffield Utd

1.39

West Brom

1.06

Sheffield Utd creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

1.61

creates per match

1.15

0.98

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.61

West Brom

1.15

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

0.98

West Brom

1.17

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.47scores less

West Brom-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

71%

Sheffield Utd or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

56%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

21%

West Brom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

75%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

40%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

16%

West Brom 1+ goals

65%

West Brom 2+ goals

29%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

61%

West Brom (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 14 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.61 + West Brom defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

West Brom attack 1.15 + Sheffield Utd defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

44%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

29%

Sheffield Utd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

A. Brooks

Sheffield Utd · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

A. Brooks↳ C. O'Hare

40'

Gustavo Hamer

45+2'

Tom Davies

45+1'

K. Ahearne-Grant↳ T. Fellows

48'

Michael Johnston

66'

J. Wallace← K. Ahearne-Grant

69'

Andre Brooks

71'

G. Diangana← M. Johnston

71'

73'

81'

81'

86'

90'

S. McCallum← A. Brooks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldWest

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots10

1.42Expected Goals (xG)0.96

2Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots10

2On Target6

8Off Target2

4Blocked2

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

418Total Passes385

353Accurate Passes302

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

-0.14Goals Prevented-0.14

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Championship: Sheffield Utd 1–1 West Brom

Sheffield Utd and West Brom drew 1-1 in Championship on December 29, 2024.

Goals: A. Brooks (23'), K. Ahearne-Grant (45+1').

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.

Sheffield Utd vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Sheffield Utd 1–1 West Brom