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West Brom vs Leeds — Championship 2018

West Brom
West Brom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
1/1/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

West Brom36%
×Draw27%
Leeds37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.22
Leeds
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.38
Leeds
1.63

allows per match

West Brom
0.84
Leeds
1.06

finishing

West Brom-0.06on par
Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
63%
West Brom or Leeds
73%
Draw or Leeds
64%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
15%
Leeds wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
70%
West Brom 2+ goals
34%
West Brom 3+ goals
12%
Leeds 1+ goals
71%
Leeds 2+ goals
35%
Leeds 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
50%
Leeds (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.38 + Leeds defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Leeds attack 1.63 + West Brom defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

West Brom scores more
36%
level
27%
Leeds scores more
37%

Leeds at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Brom vs Leeds

West Brom and Leeds drew 1-1 in Championship on January 1, 2020.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.