Leeds 1–1 West Brom: Result & Stats | Championship

Leeds

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

West Brom

3/1/2025

Championship · Round 35Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Leeds50%

×Draw27%

West Brom22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.84

Leeds

1.41

West Brom

0.84

Leeds creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 40 away

1.60

creates per match

1.19

0.49

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Leeds

1.60

West Brom

1.19

allows per match

Leeds

0.49

West Brom

1.21

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Leeds+0.28scores more

West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

78%

Leeds or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

50%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

25%

West Brom wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

76%

Leeds 2+ goals

41%

Leeds 3+ goals

17%

West Brom 1+ goals

57%

West Brom 2+ goals

21%

West Brom 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

69%

West Brom (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.49 · 8 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.60 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

West Brom attack 1.19 + Leeds defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leeds scores more

50%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

22%

Leeds at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff