Leeds 3–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

West Brom

P. Bamford 79' (pen)

K. Phillips 42'

Rodrigo 17'

H. Robson-Kanu 90'

5/23/2021

Premier League · Round 38Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Leeds43%

×Draw26%

West Brom31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.19

Leeds

1.43

West Brom

1.19

Leeds creates 20% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 93 away

1.34

creates per match

0.83

1.54

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Leeds

1.34

West Brom

0.83

allows per match

Leeds

1.54

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leeds+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

69%

Leeds or West Brom

74%

Draw or West Brom

57%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

20%

West Brom wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

76%

Leeds 2+ goals

42%

Leeds 3+ goals

17%

West Brom 1+ goals

70%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

58%

West Brom (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.54 · 76 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.51 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.34 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

West Brom attack 0.83 + Leeds defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leeds scores more

43%

level

26%

West Brom scores more

31%

Leeds at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Ezgjan Alioski

Leeds · M

7.5

Match Events

1'

L. Cooper

17'

Rodrigo↳ Raphinha

23'

C. Gallagher

42'

K. Phillips

46'

Rodrigo← P. Bamford

60'

D. O'Shea← H. Robson-Kanu

61'

C. Robinson← G. Diangana

69'

G. Berardi← P. Struijk

70'

P. Hernandez← T. Roberts

79'

P. BamfordPenalty

83'

A. Maitland-Niles← K. Grant

90'

H. Robson-Kanu

90+4'

K. Phillips

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsWest

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots14

8Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots14

9On Target5

3Off Target6

5Blocked3

9Inside Box7

8Outside Box7

Passing

64%Possession36%

499Total Passes268

412Accurate Passes190

83%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3