West Brom 1–2 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Huddersfield

C. Dawson 64'

S. Mounié 56'

R. van La Parra 48'

2/24/2018

Premier League · Round 28The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

West Brom50%

×Draw25%

Huddersfield25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.06

West Brom

1.60

Huddersfield

1.06

West Brom creates 51% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 38 away

1.15

creates per match

0.63

1.50

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

Huddersfield

0.63

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

Huddersfield

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

75%

West Brom or Huddersfield

75%

Draw or Huddersfield

50%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

26%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

80%

West Brom 2+ goals

47%

West Brom 3+ goals

22%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

65%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

29%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

66%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Huddersfield defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Huddersfield attack 0.63 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

West Brom scores more

50%

level

25%

Huddersfield scores more

25%

West Brom at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

R. van La Parra

Huddersfield · M

8.4

Match Events

30'

Florent Hadergjonaj

48'

R. van La Parra↳ C. Quaner

53'

T. Smith← F. Hadergjonaj

56'

S. Mounié↳ A. Pritchard

57'

C. Brunt← J. McClean

64'

C. Dawson↳ C. Brunt

69'

J. Livermore← G. Barry

77'

L. Depoitre← A. Pritchard

81'

O. Burke← M. Phillips

83'

Jonny Evans

89'

T. Ince← R. van La Parra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestHuddersfield

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots16

6Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots16

3On Target7

5Off Target4

2Blocked5

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

405Total Passes360

274Accurate Passes231

68%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

7Offsides5