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West Brom vs Coventry — Championship 2025

West Brom
West Brom
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
K. Ahearne-Grant 74'
A. Mowatt 11'
12/11/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

West Brom39%
×Draw28%
Coventry33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.21
Coventry
1.10

West Brom creates 10% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.25
Coventry
1.38

allows per match

West Brom
0.83
Coventry
1.18

finishing

West Brom-0.03on par
Coventry-0.02on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
67%
West Brom or Coventry
72%
Draw or Coventry
61%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
17%
Coventry wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
70%
West Brom 2+ goals
34%
West Brom 3+ goals
12%
Coventry 1+ goals
67%
Coventry 2+ goals
30%
Coventry 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
54%
Coventry (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.83 · 27 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.18 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.25 + Coventry defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Coventry attack 1.38 + West Brom defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

West Brom scores more
39%
level
28%
Coventry scores more
33%

West Brom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
A. MowattWest BromWest Brom · M
8.2

Match Events

11'
A. Mowatt
20'
Bobby Thomas
22'
Callum Styles
46'
J. Swift← J. Maja
62'
B. Thomas-Asante← E. Mason-Clark
62'
V. Torp← J. Eccles
71'
K. Bartley← C. Styles
71'
J. Wallace← T. Fellows
72'
L. Dobbin← M. Johnston
74'
K. Ahearne-Grant↳ T. Heggem
77'
E. Simms← T. Sakamoto
84'
U. Račić← J. Molumby

Possession

53%West

Shots

10West

Pass accuracy

51%West

Statistics

WestCoventry
Overview
53%Possession47%
10Total Shots16
0.47Expected Goals (xG)2.19
9Corners9
5Fouls7
Shots
10Total Shots16
2On Target4
4Off Target5
4Blocked7
4Inside Box10
6Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
489Total Passes427
426Accurate Passes356
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
-1.39Goals Prevented-1.39
Discipline
5Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Championship: West Brom 2–0 Coventry

West Brom beat Coventry 2-0 in Championship on December 11, 2024.

Goals: A. Mowatt (11'), K. Ahearne-Grant (74').

West Brom controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.