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West Brom vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

West Brom
West Brom
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Chelsea
Chelsea
11/18/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom30%
×Draw25%
Chelsea45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.21
Chelsea
1.54

Chelsea creates 27% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 200 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.15
Chelsea
1.59

allows per match

West Brom
1.50
Chelsea
1.26

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par
Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
55%
West Brom or Chelsea
75%
Draw or Chelsea
70%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
12%
Chelsea wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
70%
West Brom 2+ goals
34%
West Brom 3+ goals
12%
Chelsea 1+ goals
79%
Chelsea 2+ goals
45%
Chelsea 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
40%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 200 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Chelsea defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chelsea attack 1.59 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Brom scores more
30%
level
25%
Chelsea scores more
45%

Chelsea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Brom vs Chelsea

Chelsea beat West Brom 4-0 in Premier League on November 18, 2017.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.