West Brom 0–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chelsea

M. Batshuayi 82'

5/12/2017

Premier League · Round 37The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom30%

×Draw25%

Chelsea45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.54

West Brom

1.21

Chelsea

1.54

Chelsea creates 27% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 200 away

1.15

creates per match

1.59

1.50

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

Chelsea

1.59

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

Chelsea

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

55%

West Brom or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

70%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

12%

Chelsea wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

70%

West Brom 2+ goals

34%

West Brom 3+ goals

12%

Chelsea 1+ goals

79%

Chelsea 2+ goals

45%

Chelsea 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

40%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 200 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Chelsea defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chelsea attack 1.59 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Brom scores more

30%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

45%

Chelsea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Azpilicueta

Chelsea · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

James McClean

36'

Samuel Field

51'

C. Yacob← S. Field

59'

N. Chadli← J. McClean

64'

M. Wilson← G. McAuley

71'

Marc Wilson

75'

Willian← E. Hazard

76'

M. Batshuayi← Pedro

82'

M. Batshuayi↳ Azpilicueta

86'

K. Zouma← V. Moses

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestChelsea

Overview

32%Possession68%

7Total Shots24

5Corners8

13Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots24

2On Target5

2Off Target10

3Blocked9

6Inside Box13

1Outside Box11

Passing

32%Possession68%

262Total Passes571

194Accurate Passes500

74%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls8

3Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1