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West Brom vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

West Brom
West Brom
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
2/12/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

West Brom43%
×Draw28%
Blackburn29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.29
Blackburn
1.02

West Brom creates 26% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.31
Blackburn
1.30

allows per match

West Brom
0.75
Blackburn
1.27

finishing

West Brom-0.14scores less
Blackburn-0.17scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
71%
West Brom or Blackburn
72%
Draw or Blackburn
57%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
19%
Blackburn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
72%
West Brom 2+ goals
37%
West Brom 3+ goals
14%
Blackburn 1+ goals
64%
Blackburn 2+ goals
27%
Blackburn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
59%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.31 + Blackburn defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Blackburn attack 1.30 + West Brom defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

West Brom scores more
43%
level
28%
Blackburn scores more
29%

West Brom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: West Brom 0–2 Blackburn

Blackburn beat West Brom 2-0 in Championship on February 12, 2025.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.