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Blackburn vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
4/6/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Blackburn32%
×Draw29%
West Brom39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.05
West Brom
1.19

West Brom creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.17
West Brom
1.37

allows per match

Blackburn
1.00
West Brom
0.93

finishing

Blackburn-0.34scores less
West Brom-0.51scores less

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
61%
Blackburn or West Brom
71%
Draw or West Brom
68%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
12%
West Brom wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
65%
Blackburn 2+ goals
28%
Blackburn 3+ goals
9%
West Brom 1+ goals
70%
West Brom 2+ goals
33%
West Brom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
45%
West Brom (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.17 + West Brom defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

West Brom attack 1.37 + Blackburn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackburn scores more
32%
level
29%
West Brom scores more
39%

West Brom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
B. TothBlackburnBlackburn · G
8.0

Match Events

23'
Sean McLoughlin
26'
Harry Pickering
45'
Scott Wharton
46'
Y. Ribeiro← S. Wharton
46'
M. Jorgensen← H. Pickering
47'
Ousmane Diakité
72'
D. Dike← A. Heggebo
77'
O. Afolayan← T. Cantwell
90+2'
Daryl Dike

Possession

44%Blackburn

Shots

11Blackburn

Pass accuracy

48%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnWest
Overview
44%Possession56%
11Total Shots6
0.85Expected Goals (xG)0.69
4Corners2
8Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots6
0On Target3
8Off Target1
3Blocked2
9Inside Box4
2Outside Box2
Passing
44%Possession56%
333Total Passes432
234Accurate Passes333
70%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
0.00Goals Prevented0.00
Discipline
8Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Blackburn vs West Brom

Blackburn and West Brom drew 0-0 in Championship on April 6, 2026.

West Brom controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.