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West Brom vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

West Brom
West Brom
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
2/14/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

West Brom47%
×Draw27%
Blackburn25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.38
Blackburn
0.93

West Brom creates 48% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 59 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.37
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

West Brom
0.85
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

West Brom-0.07on par
Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
75%
West Brom or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
53%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
23%
Blackburn wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
75%
West Brom 2+ goals
40%
West Brom 3+ goals
16%
Blackburn 1+ goals
61%
Blackburn 2+ goals
24%
Blackburn 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
65%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.85 · 54 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.37 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Blackburn attack 1.01 + West Brom defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

West Brom scores more
47%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
25%

West Brom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
S. WhartonBlackburnBlackburn · D
7.7

Match Events

41'
Joe Rankin-Costello
63'
G. Diangana← K. Ahearne-Grant
70'
R. Khadra← B. Brereton
74'
T. Dolan← J. Rankin-Costello
80'
T. Gardner-Hickman← J. Molumby
90+1'
B. Johnson← J. Buckley

Possession

55%West

Shots

13West

Pass accuracy

50%West

Statistics

WestBlackburn
Overview
55%Possession45%
13Total Shots10
3Corners7
8Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots10
3On Target3
6Off Target4
4Blocked3
9Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
401Total Passes320
288Accurate Passes229
72%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Championship: West Brom 0–0 Blackburn

West Brom and Blackburn drew 0-0 in Championship on February 14, 2022.

West Brom controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.