West Brom 1–1 Arsenal: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal

J. Rodriguez 89' (pen)

J. McClean 83' (OG)

12/31/2017

Premier League · Round 21The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom29%

×Draw25%

Arsenal46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.56

West Brom

1.19

Arsenal

1.56

Arsenal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 210 away

1.15

creates per match

1.63

1.50

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

Arsenal

1.63

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

Arsenal

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

54%

West Brom or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

71%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

12%

Arsenal wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

70%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

12%

Arsenal 1+ goals

79%

Arsenal 2+ goals

46%

Arsenal 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

39%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 210 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Arsenal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Arsenal attack 1.63 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

West Brom scores more

29%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

46%

Arsenal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Sánchez

Arsenal · F

8.0

Match Events

34'

Jonny Evans

37'

A. Maitland-Niles← S. Kolašinac

58'

Shkodran Mustafi

59'

Chris Brunt

72'

J. McClean← M. Phillips

72'

G. Krychowiak← C. Brunt

72'

P. Mertesacker← L. Koscielny

74'

D. Welbeck← A. Iwobi

75'

A. Nyom← H. Robson-Kanu

82'

Craig Dawson

83'

J. McCleanOwn goal

88'

Jack Wilshere

89'

J. RodriguezPenalty

90'

Petr Čech

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestArsenal

Overview

34%Possession66%

14Total Shots14

5Corners6

14Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots14

3On Target4

4Off Target5

7Blocked5

9Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

322Total Passes647

244Accurate Passes544

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2