Arsenal 3–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

West Brom

Willian 90'

N. Pépé 35'

E. Smith Rowe 29'

Matheus Pereira 67'

5/9/2021

Premier League · Round 35Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Arsenal58%

×Draw23%

West Brom19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.89

Arsenal

1.78

West Brom

0.89

Arsenal creates 100% more chances

Season form · 210 home / 94 away

2.05

creates per match

0.84

0.93

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Arsenal

2.05

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Arsenal

0.93

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

81%

Arsenal or West Brom

77%

Draw or West Brom

42%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

33%

West Brom wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

83%

Arsenal 2+ goals

53%

Arsenal 3+ goals

26%

West Brom 1+ goals

59%

West Brom 2+ goals

22%

West Brom 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

76%

West Brom (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.93 · 210 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.05 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.78

West Brom attack 0.84 + Arsenal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Arsenal scores more

58%

level

23%

West Brom scores more

19%

Arsenal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Willian

Arsenal · M

7.7

Match Events

29'

E. Smith Rowe↳ B. Saka

35'

N. Pépé↳ C. Chambers

56'

H. Robson-Kanu← M. Diagne

60'

A. Lacazette← Martinelli

61'

Hal Robson-Kanu

63'

K. Tierney← E. Smith Rowe

67'

Matheus Pereira↳ C. Townsend

68'

G. Diangana← C. Robinson

70'

Dani Ceballos

76'

Conor Gallagher

76'

T. Partey← Dani Ceballos

90'

Willian

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalWest

Overview

65%Possession35%

15Total Shots12

6Corners6

7Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots12

7On Target1

5Off Target7

3Blocked4

7Inside Box6

8Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

576Total Passes288

497Accurate Passes210

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2