West Armenia 2–1 Shirak II: Result & Stats

West Armenia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shirak II

8/30/2022

First League · Round 6Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

West Armenia65%

×Draw18%

Shirak II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchShirak II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.20

West Armenia

2.48

Shirak II

1.20

West Armenia creates 107% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 84 away

2.52

creates per match

1.17

1.23

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

West Armenia

2.52

Shirak II

1.17

allows per match

West Armenia

1.23

Shirak II

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par

Shirak II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Shirak II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw

83%

West Armenia or Shirak II

82%

Draw or Shirak II

35%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+

43%

Shirak II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals

92%

West Armenia 2+ goals

70%

West Armenia 3+ goals

44%

Shirak II 1+ goals

70%

Shirak II 2+ goals

34%

Shirak II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)

79%

Shirak II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Shirak II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Shirak II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.48

Shirak II attack 1.17 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

West Armenia scores more

65%

level

18%

Shirak II scores more

17%

West Armenia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff