Shirak II 0–2 West Armenia: Result & Stats

Shirak II

FT

0 – 2

West Armenia

11/26/2022

First League · Round 17Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Shirak II19%

×Draw19%

West Armenia63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shirak IIExpected goals in this matchWest Armenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.45

Shirak II

1.27

West Armenia

2.45

West Armenia creates 93% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 44 away

1.35

creates per match

3.02

1.88

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Shirak II

1.35

West Armenia

3.02

allows per match

Shirak II

1.88

West Armenia

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par

West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

West Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw

37%

Shirak II or West Armenia

81%

Draw or West Armenia

81%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+

7%

West Armenia wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals

72%

Shirak II 2+ goals

36%

Shirak II 3+ goals

14%

West Armenia 1+ goals

91%

West Armenia 2+ goals

70%

West Armenia 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)

23%

West Armenia (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shirak II scores more

19%

level

19%

West Armenia scores more

63%

West Armenia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff