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West Armenia vs Sevan — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
0 – 3
Sevan
Sevan
4/7/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

West Armenia45%
×Draw22%
Sevan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
1.92
Sevan
1.64

West Armenia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 28 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
Sevan
2.04

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
Sevan
1.32

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Sevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
67%
West Armenia or Sevan
78%
Draw or Sevan
55%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
25%
Sevan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
85%
West Armenia 2+ goals
57%
West Armenia 3+ goals
30%
Sevan 1+ goals
81%
Sevan 2+ goals
49%
Sevan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
57%
Sevan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Sevan away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Sevan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sevan attack 2.04 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Armenia scores more
45%
level
22%
Sevan scores more
33%

West Armenia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Armenia vs Sevan

Sevan beat West Armenia 3-0 in First League on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.