Sevan 1–3 West Armenia: Result & Stats

Sevan

FT

1 – 3

West Armenia

10/23/2020

First League · Round 10Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sevan37%

×Draw21%

West Armenia42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SevanExpected goals in this matchWest Armenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.03

Sevan

1.90

West Armenia

2.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 44 away

2.59

creates per match

3.02

1.04

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sevan

2.59

West Armenia

3.02

allows per match

Sevan

1.04

West Armenia

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par

West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

West Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Sevan or draw

58%

Sevan or West Armenia

79%

Draw or West Armenia

63%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+

19%

West Armenia wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals

85%

Sevan 2+ goals

56%

Sevan 3+ goals

29%

West Armenia 1+ goals

87%

West Armenia 2+ goals

60%

West Armenia 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)

47%

West Armenia (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 2.59 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Sevan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sevan scores more

37%

level

21%

West Armenia scores more

42%

West Armenia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff