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West Armenia vs Pyunik II — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
1 – 0
Pyunik II
Pyunik II
8/20/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

West Armenia59%
×Draw19%
Pyunik II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
2.34
Pyunik II
1.34

West Armenia creates 75% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 98 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
Pyunik II
1.46

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
Pyunik II
2.16

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Pyunik II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Pyunik II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
79%
West Armenia or Pyunik II
81%
Draw or Pyunik II
41%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
38%
Pyunik II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
90%
West Armenia 2+ goals
67%
West Armenia 3+ goals
41%
Pyunik II 1+ goals
74%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
39%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
74%
Pyunik II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Pyunik II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Pyunik II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.34

Pyunik II attack 1.46 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

West Armenia scores more
59%
level
19%
Pyunik II scores more
21%

West Armenia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Armenia vs Pyunik II

West Armenia beat Pyunik II 1-0 in First League on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.