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Pyunik II vs West Armenia — First League 2019

Pyunik II
Pyunik II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
West Armenia
West Armenia
11/11/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Pyunik II23%
×Draw19%
West Armenia57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyunik II
1.51
West Armenia
2.42

West Armenia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 44 away

creates per match

Pyunik II
1.82
West Armenia
3.02

allows per match

Pyunik II
1.82
West Armenia
1.20

finishing

Pyunik II+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyunik II ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Pyunik II or draw
43%
Pyunik II or West Armenia
81%
Draw or West Armenia
77%

Winning margin

Pyunik II wins by 2+
10%
West Armenia wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Pyunik II 1+ goals
78%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
44%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
19%
West Armenia 1+ goals
91%
West Armenia 2+ goals
69%
West Armenia 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Pyunik II (draw refunded)
29%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyunik II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.82 · 99 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyunik II attack 1.82 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.51

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Pyunik II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Pyunik II scores more
23%
level
19%
West Armenia scores more
57%

West Armenia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pyunik II vs West Armenia

Pyunik II beat West Armenia 2-1 in First League on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.