Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

West Armenia vs Lokomotiv — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
0 – 1
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
8/30/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

West Armenia34%
×Draw21%
Lokomotiv45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
1.83
Lokomotiv
2.12

Lokomotiv creates 16% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 13 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
Lokomotiv
3.00

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
Lokomotiv
1.15

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
55%
West Armenia or Lokomotiv
79%
Draw or Lokomotiv
66%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
17%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
84%
West Armenia 2+ goals
54%
West Armenia 3+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
88%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
62%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
43%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Lokomotiv defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.83

Lokomotiv attack 3.00 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Armenia scores more
34%
level
21%
Lokomotiv scores more
45%

Lokomotiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Armenia vs Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat West Armenia 1-0 in First League on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.