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Lokomotiv vs West Armenia — First League 2019

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
1 – 1
West Armenia
West Armenia
6/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 23RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lokomotiv42%
×Draw22%
West Armenia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.92
West Armenia
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.64
West Armenia
3.02

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.57
West Armenia
1.20

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
63%
Lokomotiv or West Armenia
78%
Draw or West Armenia
58%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
23%
West Armenia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
57%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
30%
West Armenia 1+ goals
83%
West Armenia 2+ goals
53%
West Armenia 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
53%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.64 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.92

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Lokomotiv defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
42%
level
22%
West Armenia scores more
37%

Lokomotiv at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lokomotiv 1–1 West Armenia

Lokomotiv and West Armenia drew 1-1 in First League on June 4, 2020.

The match was played at RCCSD Stadium in Yerevan.