Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

West Armenia vs Lernayin Artsakh — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
3 – 2
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
4/25/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

West Armenia51%
×Draw21%
Lernayin Artsakh28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
2.06
Lernayin Artsakh
1.48

West Armenia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 81 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
Lernayin Artsakh
1.74

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
Lernayin Artsakh
1.60

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
72%
West Armenia or Lernayin Artsakh
79%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh
49%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
30%
Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
87%
West Armenia 2+ goals
61%
West Armenia 3+ goals
34%
Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
77%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
43%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
65%
Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

West Armenia scores more
51%
level
21%
Lernayin Artsakh scores more
28%

West Armenia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: West Armenia 3–2 Lernayin Artsakh

West Armenia beat Lernayin Artsakh 3-2 in First League on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.