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Lernayin Artsakh vs West Armenia — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
FT
1 – 2
West Armenia
West Armenia
3/10/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh27%
×Draw21%
West Armenia52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh
1.54
West Armenia
2.19

West Armenia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.89
West Armenia
3.02

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh
1.35
West Armenia
1.20

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh or draw
48%
Lernayin Artsakh or West Armenia
79%
Draw or West Armenia
73%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+
12%
West Armenia wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals
79%
Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals
45%
Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals
20%
West Armenia 1+ goals
89%
West Armenia 2+ goals
64%
West Armenia 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)
34%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.89 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lernayin Artsakh scores more
27%
level
21%
West Armenia scores more
52%

West Armenia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lernayin Artsakh vs West Armenia

West Armenia beat Lernayin Artsakh 2-1 in First League on March 10, 2020.

The match was played at Sisian Stadium in Sisian.