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West Armenia vs Dilijan — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
CANC
14:00
Dilijan
Dilijan
7/6/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

West Armenia78%
×Draw13%
Dilijan10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
3.33
Dilijan
1.16

West Armenia creates 187% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 13 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
Dilijan
1.08

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
Dilijan
4.15

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Dilijan+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Dilijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
90%
West Armenia or Dilijan
87%
Draw or Dilijan
22%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
59%
Dilijan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
96%
West Armenia 2+ goals
84%
West Armenia 3+ goals
63%
Dilijan 1+ goals
69%
Dilijan 2+ goals
32%
Dilijan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
89%
Dilijan (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Dilijan away — creates 1.08, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Dilijan defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.33

Dilijan attack 1.08 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

West Armenia scores more
78%
level
13%
Dilijan scores more
10%

West Armenia at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

West Armenia face Dilijan (First League)

First League returns with West Armenia hosting Dilijan. Match starts July 6, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

West Armenia host Dilijan at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.