Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dilijan vs West Armenia — First League 2019

Dilijan
Dilijan
FT
0 – 8
West Armenia
West Armenia
11/6/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 14UWC Dilijan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dilijan15%
×Draw15%
West Armenia70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dilijan
1.44
West Armenia
3.17

West Armenia creates 120% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 44 away

creates per match

Dilijan
1.69
West Armenia
3.02

allows per match

Dilijan
3.31
West Armenia
1.20

finishing

Dilijan+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dilijan ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Dilijan or draw
30%
Dilijan or West Armenia
85%
Draw or West Armenia
85%

Winning margin

Dilijan wins by 2+
6%
West Armenia wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Dilijan 1+ goals
76%
Dilijan 2+ goals
42%
Dilijan 3+ goals
18%
West Armenia 1+ goals
96%
West Armenia 2+ goals
82%
West Armenia 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Dilijan (draw refunded)
17%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dilijan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dilijan attack 1.69 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Dilijan defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Dilijan scores more
15%
level
15%
West Armenia scores more
70%

West Armenia at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Dilijan 0–8 West Armenia

West Armenia beat Dilijan 8-0 in First League on November 6, 2019.

The match was played at UWC Dilijan in Dilijan.