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West Armenia vs Banants II — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Banants II
Banants II
11/21/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

West Armenia53%
×Draw21%
Banants II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
2.16
Banants II
1.47

West Armenia creates 47% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 99 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
Banants II
1.71

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
Banants II
1.79

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Banants II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Banants II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
74%
West Armenia or Banants II
79%
Draw or Banants II
47%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
32%
Banants II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
88%
West Armenia 2+ goals
63%
West Armenia 3+ goals
36%
Banants II 1+ goals
77%
Banants II 2+ goals
43%
Banants II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
67%
Banants II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Banants II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Banants II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.16

Banants II attack 1.71 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

West Armenia scores more
53%
level
21%
Banants II scores more
26%

West Armenia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: West Armenia 1–1 Banants II

West Armenia and Banants II drew 1-1 in First League on November 21, 2022.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.