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Banants II vs West Armenia — First League 2019

Banants II
Banants II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
West Armenia
West Armenia
8/25/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Banants-3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Banants II26%
×Draw20%
West Armenia53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banants II
1.54
West Armenia
2.25

West Armenia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 44 away

creates per match

Banants II
1.88
West Armenia
3.02

allows per match

Banants II
1.47
West Armenia
1.20

finishing

Banants II+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banants II ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Banants II or draw
47%
Banants II or West Armenia
80%
Draw or West Armenia
74%

Winning margin

Banants II wins by 2+
12%
West Armenia wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Banants II 1+ goals
79%
Banants II 2+ goals
45%
Banants II 3+ goals
20%
West Armenia 1+ goals
89%
West Armenia 2+ goals
65%
West Armenia 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Banants II (draw refunded)
33%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banants II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 100 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banants II attack 1.88 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Banants II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Banants II scores more
26%
level
20%
West Armenia scores more
53%

West Armenia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Banants II 1–3 West Armenia

West Armenia beat Banants II 3-1 in First League on August 25, 2022.

The match was played at Banants-3 in Yerevan.