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West Armenia vs Ararat-Armenia II — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
3 – 3
Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
11/21/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

West Armenia56%
×Draw20%
Ararat-Armenia II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
2.19
Ararat-Armenia II
1.35

West Armenia creates 62% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 99 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
Ararat-Armenia II
1.48

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
Ararat-Armenia II
1.86

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Ararat-Armenia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
77%
West Armenia or Ararat-Armenia II
80%
Draw or Ararat-Armenia II
44%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
34%
Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
89%
West Armenia 2+ goals
64%
West Armenia 3+ goals
37%
Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
74%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
39%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
71%
Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Ararat-Armenia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.19

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.48 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

West Armenia scores more
56%
level
20%
Ararat-Armenia II scores more
23%

West Armenia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: West Armenia 3–3 Ararat-Armenia II

West Armenia and Ararat-Armenia II drew 3-3 in First League on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.