Ararat-Armenia II 5–2 West Armenia: Result & Stats

Ararat-Armenia II

FT

5 – 2

West Armenia

10/18/2022

First League · Round 12Football Academy 3rd pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ararat-Armenia II23%

×Draw19%

West Armenia57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ararat-Armenia IIExpected goals in this matchWest Armenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.42

Ararat-Armenia II

1.50

West Armenia

2.42

West Armenia creates 61% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 44 away

1.80

creates per match

3.02

1.82

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia II

1.80

West Armenia

3.02

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia II

1.82

West Armenia

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia II ↓

West Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia II or draw

43%

Ararat-Armenia II or West Armenia

81%

Draw or West Armenia

77%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+

10%

West Armenia wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals

78%

Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals

44%

Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals

19%

West Armenia 1+ goals

91%

West Armenia 2+ goals

69%

West Armenia 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)

29%

West Armenia (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.82 · 98 matches

West Armenia away — creates 3.02, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.80 + West Armenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

West Armenia attack 3.02 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ararat-Armenia II scores more

23%

level

19%

West Armenia scores more

57%

West Armenia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff