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West Armenia vs Ararat-Armenia — Premier League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
9/24/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

West Armenia20%
×Draw23%
Ararat-Armenia57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
1.01
Ararat-Armenia
1.86

Ararat-Armenia creates 84% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 107 away

creates per match

West Armenia
1.22
Ararat-Armenia
1.67

allows per match

West Armenia
2.06
Ararat-Armenia
0.80

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Ararat-Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
43%
West Armenia or Ararat-Armenia
77%
Draw or Ararat-Armenia
80%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
7%
Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
64%
West Armenia 2+ goals
27%
West Armenia 3+ goals
8%
Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals
84%
Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals
55%
Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
26%
Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

Ararat-Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 1.22 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.01

Ararat-Armenia attack 1.67 + West Armenia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

West Armenia scores more
20%
level
23%
Ararat-Armenia scores more
57%

Ararat-Armenia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Armenia vs Ararat-Armenia

Ararat-Armenia beat West Armenia 2-1 in Premier League on September 24, 2024.

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.