Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ararat-Armenia vs West Armenia — Premier League 2019

Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
West Armenia
West Armenia
2/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ararat-Armenia68%
×Draw19%
West Armenia13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia
2.23
West Armenia
0.86

Ararat-Armenia creates 159% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia
2.06
West Armenia
0.90

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia
0.82
West Armenia
2.39

finishing

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia or draw
87%
Ararat-Armenia or West Armenia
81%
Draw or West Armenia
32%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+
44%
West Armenia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals
89%
Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals
65%
Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals
38%
West Armenia 1+ goals
58%
West Armenia 2+ goals
21%
West Armenia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)
84%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

West Armenia away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia attack 2.06 + West Armenia defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.23

West Armenia attack 0.90 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ararat-Armenia scores more
68%
level
19%
West Armenia scores more
13%

Ararat-Armenia at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ararat-Armenia 1–1 West Armenia

Ararat-Armenia and West Armenia drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.