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West Adelaide vs Port Adelaide Pirates — South Australia State League 1 2021

West Adelaide
West Adelaide
FT
2 – 1
Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
3/26/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 5Adelaide Shores Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

West Adelaide56%
×Draw20%
Port Adelaide Pirates23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Adelaide
2.25
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.40

West Adelaide creates 61% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 22 away

creates per match

West Adelaide
2.00
Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32

allows per match

West Adelaide
1.48
Port Adelaide Pirates
2.50

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par
Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw
77%
West Adelaide or Port Adelaide Pirates
80%
Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates
44%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+
35%
Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals
89%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
65%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
39%
Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
75%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
41%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)
71%
Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 2.00 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + West Adelaide defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

West Adelaide scores more
56%
level
20%
Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
23%

West Adelaide at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: West Adelaide 2–1 Port Adelaide Pirates

West Adelaide beat Port Adelaide Pirates 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Adelaide Shores Football Centre in Adelaide.