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Port Adelaide Pirates vs West Adelaide — South Australia State League 1 2021

Port Adelaide Pirates
Port Adelaide Pirates
FT
1 – 5
West Adelaide
West Adelaide
6/25/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 16Ngarrpadla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates26%
×Draw22%
West Adelaide52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.30
West Adelaide
1.94

West Adelaide creates 49% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 47 away

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
1.32
West Adelaide
1.53

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates
2.36
West Adelaide
1.28

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par
West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

West Adelaide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw
48%
Port Adelaide Pirates or West Adelaide
78%
Draw or West Adelaide
74%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+
11%
West Adelaide wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals
73%
Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals
37%
Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals
14%
West Adelaide 1+ goals
86%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
58%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)
33%
West Adelaide (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + West Adelaide defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

West Adelaide attack 1.53 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more
26%
level
22%
West Adelaide scores more
52%

West Adelaide at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Port Adelaide Pirates 1–5 West Adelaide

West Adelaide beat Port Adelaide Pirates 5-1 in South Australia State League 1 on June 25, 2022.

The match was played at Ngarrpadla in Adelaide.