West Adelaide 3–2 Modbury Jets: Result & Stats

West Adelaide

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Modbury Jets

3/11/2023

South Australia NPL · Round 4West Beach Parks Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

West Adelaide40%

×Draw22%

Modbury Jets38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West AdelaideExpected goals in this matchModbury Jets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.71

West Adelaide

1.77

Modbury Jets

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 47 away

1.56

creates per match

1.53

1.89

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

West Adelaide

1.56

Modbury Jets

1.53

allows per match

West Adelaide

1.89

Modbury Jets

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Modbury Jets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw

62%

West Adelaide or Modbury Jets

78%

Draw or Modbury Jets

60%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+

21%

Modbury Jets wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals

83%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

53%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

26%

Modbury Jets 1+ goals

82%

Modbury Jets 2+ goals

51%

Modbury Jets 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

52%

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.98 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 1.56 + Modbury Jets defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.77

Modbury Jets attack 1.53 + West Adelaide defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Adelaide scores more

40%

level

22%

Modbury Jets scores more

38%

West Adelaide at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff