West Adelaide vs Modbury Jets — South Australia State League 1 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
West Adelaide35%
Modbury Jets43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Modbury Jets creates 12% more chances
Season form · 48 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
West Adelaide ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
West Adelaide at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches
Modbury Jets away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
West Adelaide attack 2.00 + Modbury Jets defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.59
Modbury Jets attack 2.09 + West Adelaide defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Modbury Jets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Adelaide Raiders
Fulham United
Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Blue EaglesModbury Jets
Cumberland United
The Cove
Eastern United
Adelaide Cobras
Salisbury United
South Adelaide PanthersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
West Adelaide host Modbury Jets on Saturday, 2 July 2022 at 05:30. The match is part of the South Australia State League 1 2021/2022 season.
Match Recap: West Adelaide vs Modbury Jets
West Adelaide and Modbury Jets drew 1-1 in South Australia State League 1 on July 2, 2022.
The match was played at West Beach Parks Football Centre in Adelaide.