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West Adelaide vs Adelaide Comets — South Australia NPL 2026

West Adelaide
West Adelaide
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Adelaide Comets
Adelaide Comets
7/15/2023South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 20West Beach Parks Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

West Adelaide35%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Comets42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Adelaide
1.56
Adelaide Comets
1.75

Adelaide Comets creates 12% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 87 away

creates per match

West Adelaide
1.56
Adelaide Comets
1.61

allows per match

West Adelaide
1.89
Adelaide Comets
1.55

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par
Adelaide Comets+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Adelaide Comets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw
58%
West Adelaide or Adelaide Comets
77%
Draw or Adelaide Comets
65%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+
17%
Adelaide Comets wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals
79%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
46%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
21%
Adelaide Comets 1+ goals
83%
Adelaide Comets 2+ goals
52%
Adelaide Comets 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)
45%
Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

Adelaide Comets away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.55 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 1.56 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Adelaide Comets attack 1.61 + West Adelaide defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Adelaide scores more
35%
level
23%
Adelaide Comets scores more
42%

Adelaide Comets at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Adelaide Comets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Adelaide vs Adelaide Comets

West Adelaide and Adelaide Comets drew 2-2 in South Australia NPL on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at West Beach Parks Football Centre in Adelaide.