West Adelaide 1–1 Adelaide Comets: Result & Stats

West Adelaide

FT

1 – 1

Adelaide Comets

5/25/2019

South Australia NPL · Round 11Adelaide City Park (Adelaide)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

West Adelaide34%

×Draw23%

Adelaide Comets43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West AdelaideExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Comets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.74

West Adelaide

1.54

Adelaide Comets

1.74

Adelaide Comets creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 88 away

1.56

creates per match

1.59

1.89

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

West Adelaide

1.56

Adelaide Comets

1.59

allows per match

West Adelaide

1.89

Adelaide Comets

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Adelaide Comets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Adelaide Comets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw

57%

West Adelaide or Adelaide Comets

77%

Draw or Adelaide Comets

66%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+

16%

Adelaide Comets wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals

79%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

45%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

20%

Adelaide Comets 1+ goals

82%

Adelaide Comets 2+ goals

52%

Adelaide Comets 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

45%

Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

Adelaide Comets away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 1.56 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Adelaide Comets attack 1.59 + West Adelaide defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

West Adelaide scores more

34%

level

23%

Adelaide Comets scores more

43%

Adelaide Comets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Adelaide Comets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff