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West Adelaide vs Adelaide City — South Australia NPL 2026

West Adelaide
West Adelaide
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Adelaide City
Adelaide City
5/13/2023South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 12West Beach Parks Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

West Adelaide32%
×Draw23%
Adelaide City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Adelaide
1.45
Adelaide City
1.74

Adelaide City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 90 away

creates per match

West Adelaide
1.56
Adelaide City
1.59

allows per match

West Adelaide
1.89
Adelaide City
1.33

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par
Adelaide City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Adelaide City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw
56%
West Adelaide or Adelaide City
77%
Draw or Adelaide City
68%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+
15%
Adelaide City wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals
77%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
42%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
18%
Adelaide City 1+ goals
82%
Adelaide City 2+ goals
52%
Adelaide City 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)
42%
Adelaide City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

Adelaide City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 1.56 + Adelaide City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Adelaide City attack 1.59 + West Adelaide defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

West Adelaide scores more
32%
level
23%
Adelaide City scores more
44%

Adelaide City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Adelaide City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Adelaide vs Adelaide City

Adelaide City beat West Adelaide 1-0 in South Australia NPL on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at West Beach Parks Football Centre in Adelaide.