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Adelaide City vs West Adelaide — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide City
Adelaide City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
West Adelaide
West Adelaide
2/28/2026South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 1Adelaide City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Adelaide City61%
×Draw21%
West Adelaide18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide City
2.08
West Adelaide
1.04

Adelaide City creates 100% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 29 away

creates per match

Adelaide City
1.98
West Adelaide
1.00

allows per match

Adelaide City
1.07
West Adelaide
2.17

finishing

Adelaide City+0.00on par
West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide City ↓

West Adelaide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Adelaide City or draw
82%
Adelaide City or West Adelaide
79%
Draw or West Adelaide
39%

Winning margin

Adelaide City wins by 2+
38%
West Adelaide wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adelaide City 1+ goals
87%
Adelaide City 2+ goals
61%
Adelaide City 3+ goals
34%
West Adelaide 1+ goals
65%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
28%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Adelaide City (draw refunded)
77%
West Adelaide (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide City at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.07 · 88 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide City attack 1.98 + West Adelaide defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

West Adelaide attack 1.00 + Adelaide City defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Adelaide City scores more
61%
level
21%
West Adelaide scores more
18%

Adelaide City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Adelaide City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: Adelaide City 2–1 West Adelaide

Adelaide City beat West Adelaide 2-1 in South Australia NPL on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Adelaide City Park.