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Wesseling-Urfeld vs SV Breinig — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Wesseling-Urfeld
Wesseling-Urfeld
FT
1 – 4
SV Breinig
SV Breinig
11/14/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 15Ulrike-Meyfarth-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wesseling-Urfeld33%
×Draw20%
SV Breinig47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wesseling-Urfeld
1.90
SV Breinig
2.31

SV Breinig creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Wesseling-Urfeld
1.00
SV Breinig
1.15

allows per match

Wesseling-Urfeld
3.47
SV Breinig
2.80

finishing

Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par
SV Breinig+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wesseling-Urfeld ↓

SV Breinig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Wesseling-Urfeld or draw
53%
Wesseling-Urfeld or SV Breinig
80%
Draw or SV Breinig
67%

Winning margin

Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+
17%
SV Breinig wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals
85%
Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals
56%
Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals
29%
SV Breinig 1+ goals
90%
SV Breinig 2+ goals
67%
SV Breinig 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)
41%
SV Breinig (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wesseling-Urfeld at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.47 · 19 matches

SV Breinig away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + SV Breinig defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

SV Breinig attack 1.15 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wesseling-Urfeld scores more
33%
level
20%
SV Breinig scores more
47%

SV Breinig at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SV Breinig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Wesseling-Urfeld 1–4 SV Breinig

SV Breinig beat Wesseling-Urfeld 4-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Ulrike-Meyfarth-Stadion in Wesseling.