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SV Breinig vs Wesseling-Urfeld — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

SV Breinig
SV Breinig
CANC
13:00
Wesseling-Urfeld
Wesseling-Urfeld
5/13/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 28Sportplatz Breiniger Berg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SV Breinig59%
×Draw18%
Wesseling-Urfeld23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Breinig
2.77
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.73

SV Breinig creates 60% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

SV Breinig
1.50
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.00

allows per match

SV Breinig
2.45
Wesseling-Urfeld
4.05

finishing

SV Breinig+0.00on par
Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Breinig ↓

Wesseling-Urfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

SV Breinig or draw
77%
SV Breinig or Wesseling-Urfeld
82%
Draw or Wesseling-Urfeld
41%

Winning margin

SV Breinig wins by 2+
39%
Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SV Breinig 1+ goals
94%
SV Breinig 2+ goals
76%
SV Breinig 3+ goals
51%
Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals
82%
Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals
52%
Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SV Breinig (draw refunded)
72%
Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Breinig at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 20 matches

Wesseling-Urfeld away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Breinig attack 1.50 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 2.77

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + SV Breinig defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SV Breinig scores more
59%
level
18%
Wesseling-Urfeld scores more
23%

SV Breinig at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SV Breinig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Breinig face Wesseling-Urfeld (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein returns with SV Breinig hosting Wesseling-Urfeld. Match starts May 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SV Breinig host Wesseling-Urfeld at Sportplatz Breiniger Berg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.