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Wesseling-Urfeld vs Hennef 05 — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Wesseling-Urfeld
Wesseling-Urfeld
FT
1 – 3
Hennef 05
Hennef 05
9/13/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 2Ulrike-Meyfarth-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wesseling-Urfeld19%
×Draw17%
Hennef 0564%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wesseling-Urfeld
1.43
Hennef 05
2.73

Hennef 05 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 81 away

creates per match

Wesseling-Urfeld
1.00
Hennef 05
1.98

allows per match

Wesseling-Urfeld
3.47
Hennef 05
1.86

finishing

Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par
Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wesseling-Urfeld ↓

Hennef 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Wesseling-Urfeld or draw
36%
Wesseling-Urfeld or Hennef 05
83%
Draw or Hennef 05
81%

Winning margin

Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+
8%
Hennef 05 wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals
76%
Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals
42%
Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals
17%
Hennef 05 1+ goals
93%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
75%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)
22%
Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wesseling-Urfeld at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.47 · 19 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Wesseling-Urfeld scores more
19%
level
17%
Hennef 05 scores more
64%

Hennef 05 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Wesseling-Urfeld 1–3 Hennef 05

Hennef 05 beat Wesseling-Urfeld 3-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Ulrike-Meyfarth-Stadion in Wesseling.