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Hennef 05 vs Wesseling-Urfeld — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hennef 05
Hennef 05
CANC
14:00
Wesseling-Urfeld
Wesseling-Urfeld
3/21/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 19Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hennef 0572%
×Draw15%
Wesseling-Urfeld13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hennef 05
2.92
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.19

Hennef 05 creates 145% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hennef 05
1.79
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.00

allows per match

Hennef 05
1.39
Wesseling-Urfeld
4.05

finishing

Hennef 05+0.00on par
Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 ↓

Wesseling-Urfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hennef 05 or draw
87%
Hennef 05 or Wesseling-Urfeld
85%
Draw or Wesseling-Urfeld
28%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 wins by 2+
52%
Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hennef 05 1+ goals
94%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
78%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
55%
Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals
70%
Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals
33%
Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
85%
Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Wesseling-Urfeld away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 attack 1.79 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 2.92

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + Hennef 05 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Hennef 05 scores more
72%
level
15%
Wesseling-Urfeld scores more
13%

Hennef 05 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Hennef 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hennef 05 face Wesseling-Urfeld (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein returns with Hennef 05 hosting Wesseling-Urfeld. Match starts March 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hennef 05 host Wesseling-Urfeld at Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.