Wesseling-Urfeld 0–3 Bergisch Gladbach

Wesseling-Urfeld

FT

0 – 3

Bergisch Gladbach

10/10/2021

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 10Ulrike-Meyfarth-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wesseling-Urfeld13%

×Draw16%

Bergisch Gladbach71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wesseling-UrfeldExpected goals in this matchBergisch Gladbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.70

Wesseling-Urfeld

1.07

Bergisch Gladbach

2.70

Bergisch Gladbach creates 152% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

1.00

creates per match

1.92

3.47

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Wesseling-Urfeld

1.00

Bergisch Gladbach

1.92

allows per match

Wesseling-Urfeld

3.47

Bergisch Gladbach

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wesseling-Urfeld ↓

Bergisch Gladbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Wesseling-Urfeld or draw

29%

Wesseling-Urfeld or Bergisch Gladbach

84%

Draw or Bergisch Gladbach

87%

Winning margin

Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+

4%

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals

66%

Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals

29%

Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals

9%

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals

93%

Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals

75%

Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)

15%

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wesseling-Urfeld at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.47 · 19 matches

Bergisch Gladbach away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Bergisch Gladbach attack 1.92 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Wesseling-Urfeld scores more

13%

level

16%

Bergisch Gladbach scores more

71%

Bergisch Gladbach at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff