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Bergisch Gladbach vs Wesseling-Urfeld — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Wesseling-Urfeld
Wesseling-Urfeld
4/24/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 27BELKAW-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach79%
×Draw12%
Wesseling-Urfeld9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergisch Gladbach
3.29
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.08

Bergisch Gladbach creates 205% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach
2.52
Wesseling-Urfeld
1.00

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach
1.16
Wesseling-Urfeld
4.05

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par
Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

Wesseling-Urfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw
91%
Bergisch Gladbach or Wesseling-Urfeld
88%
Draw or Wesseling-Urfeld
21%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
60%
Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
96%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
83%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
62%
Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals
66%
Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals
29%
Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
90%
Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Wesseling-Urfeld away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 3.29

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more
79%
level
12%
Wesseling-Urfeld scores more
9%

Bergisch Gladbach at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Bergisch Gladbach 4–1 Wesseling-Urfeld

Bergisch Gladbach beat Wesseling-Urfeld 4-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at BELKAW-Arena in Bergisch Gladbach.