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Werribee City vs North Geelong Warriors — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Werribee City
Werribee City
FT
1 – 3
North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
4/30/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 7Galvin Park Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Werribee City33%
×Draw23%
North Geelong Warriors44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werribee City
1.54
North Geelong Warriors
1.79

North Geelong Warriors creates 16% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 40 away

creates per match

Werribee City
1.19
North Geelong Warriors
1.60

allows per match

Werribee City
1.98
North Geelong Warriors
1.90

finishing

Werribee City+0.00on par
North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werribee City ↓

North Geelong Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Werribee City or draw
56%
Werribee City or North Geelong Warriors
77%
Draw or North Geelong Warriors
67%

Winning margin

Werribee City wins by 2+
16%
North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Werribee City 1+ goals
79%
Werribee City 2+ goals
45%
Werribee City 3+ goals
20%
North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
83%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
53%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Werribee City (draw refunded)
43%
North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werribee City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werribee City attack 1.19 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.54

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.60 + Werribee City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Werribee City scores more
33%
level
23%
North Geelong Warriors scores more
44%

North Geelong Warriors at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "North Geelong Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Werribee City vs North Geelong Warriors

North Geelong Warriors beat Werribee City 3-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Galvin Park Reserve in Werribee.