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North Geelong Warriors vs Werribee City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
FT
1 – 0
Werribee City
Werribee City
7/16/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18Elcho Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

North Geelong Warriors51%
×Draw21%
Werribee City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Geelong Warriors
2.09
Werribee City
1.48

North Geelong Warriors creates 41% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 45 away

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors
1.85
Werribee City
1.29

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors
1.66
Werribee City
2.33

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par
Werribee City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

Werribee City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw
73%
North Geelong Warriors or Werribee City
79%
Draw or Werribee City
49%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
30%
Werribee City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
88%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
62%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
34%
Werribee City 1+ goals
77%
Werribee City 2+ goals
43%
Werribee City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
65%
Werribee City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

Werribee City away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.85 + Werribee City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.09

Werribee City attack 1.29 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more
51%
level
21%
Werribee City scores more
27%

North Geelong Warriors at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "North Geelong Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Geelong Warriors vs Werribee City

North Geelong Warriors beat Werribee City 1-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Elcho Park in Lara.