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Werribee City vs Moreland Zebras — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Werribee City
Werribee City
FT
1 – 1
Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
5/20/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 14Galvin Park Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Werribee City29%
×Draw24%
Moreland Zebras47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werribee City
1.30
Moreland Zebras
1.71

Moreland Zebras creates 32% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 32 away

creates per match

Werribee City
1.19
Moreland Zebras
1.44

allows per match

Werribee City
1.98
Moreland Zebras
1.41

finishing

Werribee City+0.00on par
Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werribee City ↓

Moreland Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Werribee City or draw
53%
Werribee City or Moreland Zebras
76%
Draw or Moreland Zebras
71%

Winning margin

Werribee City wins by 2+
12%
Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Werribee City 1+ goals
73%
Werribee City 2+ goals
37%
Werribee City 3+ goals
14%
Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
82%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
51%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Werribee City (draw refunded)
38%
Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werribee City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werribee City attack 1.19 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Werribee City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Werribee City scores more
29%
level
24%
Moreland Zebras scores more
47%

Moreland Zebras at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Werribee City vs Moreland Zebras

Werribee City and Moreland Zebras drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Galvin Park Reserve in Werribee.