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Moreland Zebras vs Werribee City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
CANC
10:30
Werribee City
Werribee City
7/23/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 17CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Moreland Zebras54%
×Draw22%
Werribee City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland Zebras
2.01
Werribee City
1.29

Moreland Zebras creates 56% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

creates per match

Moreland Zebras
1.69
Werribee City
1.29

allows per match

Moreland Zebras
1.28
Werribee City
2.33

finishing

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par
Werribee City+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland Zebras ↓

Werribee City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Moreland Zebras or draw
76%
Moreland Zebras or Werribee City
78%
Draw or Werribee City
46%

Winning margin

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
32%
Werribee City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
87%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
59%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
32%
Werribee City 1+ goals
72%
Werribee City 2+ goals
37%
Werribee City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
69%
Werribee City (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland Zebras at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Werribee City away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland Zebras attack 1.69 + Werribee City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.01

Werribee City attack 1.29 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Moreland Zebras scores more
54%
level
22%
Werribee City scores more
24%

Moreland Zebras at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Moreland Zebras host Werribee City

July 23, 2021: Moreland Zebras take on Werribee City in Victoria NPL 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Moreland Zebras host Werribee City at CB Smith Reserve.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.